The Effect of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), Years of Education, and Unemployment Rate on Poverty Levels in East Java Province 2020–2024

This study examines the impact of economic growth, education, and unemployment on the poverty level in East Java Province. The research population includes all regencies and cities in East Java Province during the 2020–2024 period, which also coincides with the Covid-19 pandemic. This study employs panel data regression analysis with a sample of 190 observations, comprising 29 regencies and 9 cities from 2020 to 2024, utilizing secondary data obtained from the East Java Provincial Statistics Agency (BPS).
The results indicate that Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) has a negative and significant effect on poverty, meaning that an increase in GRDP tends to reduce the poverty level. In contrast, years of education and the unemployment rate do not have a significant effect on poverty, suggesting that increases in education duration and fluctuations in unemployment have not yet directly contributed to poverty reduction, possibly due to the high prevalence of informal sector employment that is not officially recorded. This study is expected to serve as a reference for policymakers in formulating more effective poverty alleviation strategies in East Java Province. Additionally, the findings contribute to the economic literature on poverty determinants during the pandemic, help to understand local socio-economic dynamics, and open opportunities for future research to explore other factors influencing social inequality and sustainable regional development.

Keywords: Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), Years of Education, Unemployment Rate, Poverty Level, Panel Data, East Java